What I Learned from Analyzing over 100 Recently Expired Listings

The Triangle is currently seeing a large number of homes sitting on the market without selling and an even larger number expire without selling. Part of this is seasonal, but that’s not the whole story. There is a deeper reason that some homes just aren’t selling.

As a Realtor, I’ve seen firsthand what makes homes fly off the market and what keeps them stuck. But rather than relying solely on my experience, (e.i., Trust me Bro!) I wanted to show you exactly what is happening. I dug into the hard data and analyzed over 100 expired listing in Wake County from the past 30 days. Then I compared them to homes that successfully closed during the same time frame.

What I discovered might surprise you—and could change the way you approach selling your own home.

First the big picture…

Expired Listings Data in Wake County

In 2024 in Wake County:

• 2,271 homes expired from the market without selling.
• That’s an average of 189 expired listings per month.
• Annually, 14% of all properties listed, expire without selling.

Seasonal Differences in Expired Listings

But… the data is different depending on the time of year.

• Expired listings in January are almost double the yearly average.
• November and December’s expired listings are 10-20% higher than the yearly average. 

So it is true that seasonality does account for some of the expired listings. There just aren’t as many buyers in the colder months than there are in the rest of the year.

But it’s not just the time of year that is keeping the properties from selling. Because if you look at the chart, there are plenty of homes that expire without selling all throughout the busy season. During November, December and January, when expired listings are at their highest, 10% of homes had bidding wars. There is something else happening besides cold weather, that is preventing homes from selling. It’s one of the three things I uncovered in the case study below.

With the warmer months coming up, you have a great opportunity to sell your home, but in order to have a successful sale, you need to be ready.

When I analyzed those 100+ listings, I was looking for similarities. And after scouring through tons of photos and other data, I started to see a few things about the EXPIRED listings that were different than the closed listings. Take a look at this graph and my key takeaways below.

Key Takeaways

1. Staging is RARE in expired listings but VERY COMMON in sold listings. 86% of homes that sold were staged, but 70% of homes that expired were not staged. Professional staging is a non-negotiable if you really want your home to sell. Either that, or you’ll need to drop the price to make up for it. But before you stage your home, you have to get it ready….
2. 98% of SOLD homes, had decluttered before staging the home. But only 74% of Expired homes decluttered. And almost none of them staged after decluttering.
3. Only 62% of expired listings had high quality photography, compared to 98% of sold listings.

Competing Offers

In almost every case, homes that had competing offers did all three: decluttering, staging and high quality photos. That doesn’t mean that every home that did these three things always gets competing offers. Nor does it mean that doing all these things will prevent your listing from expiring without selling. Location and price matter as well. But it drastically increases your chances of both selling and of selling with multiple offers.

If you’re in a difficult to sell location or a price point with less competition, you may not get competing offers, even when doing all the things. But if you want your home to sell, it’s even more important in these cases to prepare it well. 

Competing Offer Example

These images are of a home that sold with competing offers for 9% over list price. Look at how nice it looks. The cabinets even look like the original 1960s or 70s cabinets. They didn’t do a lot of updating to this home, but it’s in clean, decluttered and nicely staged condition.

Staged VS Not Staged

Here’s an example of a listing where they tried to prepare the home but fell short. In the first image, the room still really feels like it belongs to the children who live here. There are lots of hooks, which is useful, however they are filled with very personal belongings. Buyers need to imagine themselves living in the space. They may intend to use the room as a home office or a room for an elderly family member. Staging makes the room accessible to the imagination of the new homeowners.

In contrast, the picture on the right uses artistic representation to show how the space can be used. The jacket and bag are color coordinated with the space. They are NEW… not someone else’s used belongings. They are used for a specific purpose – to show how convenient it is to be able to hang up your coat and bag when you walk in from the garage. When staging, personal items should only be used when either showing how to use a space or directing the eye toward or away from a feature of the home. Here are some deeper insights by price point.

Deeper Insights by Price Point

• Properties over $600k were much more likely to be staged compared to properties under $600k.
• 39% of homes under $600k expired in January without selling, compared to 50% over $600k. I’m not kidding…. I triple checked because I couldn’t believe it myself, but yes, half of the homes over 600k that were still on the market in January expired without selling.
• Even though more homes were staged in the higher price point, more of them expired as well. The higher the price of your home, the more important it is to declutter, stage AND take professional photos. 
• Properties over $1 million had a very different picture. Staging and professional photos were much more common, even in expired listings. There is a different set of “must haves” for higher end homes that deserves it’s own report. I’m working on a luxury home sales case study that is already revealing some fascinating facts about what it takes to sell a luxury home! Stay tuned! Or send an email to ellen@harmonyrealtytriangle.com if you want to make sure to receive it when it’s done!