Raleigh Housing Market Update: November 2023

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November saw year over year median home value drops in all but 4 towns in the Triangle. [scroll down to see the chart]

If this was a month over month change, I wouldn’t even be talking about it, because we EXPECT to see lower prices in November. There is usually less competition during the holiday season. It’s normal for prices to be lower.

But when we see year over year decreases, that may indicate something significant. But I don’t think it does. This is why….

Scroll past the chart to see my take on the numbers.

The Product Has Changed

The big concern about prices going down is that people worry that the home you just bought is no longer worth what you paid for it.

But when we look at other stats about the homes that are selling, we can see that it isn’t the case.

The type of home that is selling now is a different home.

People are choosing to buy homes that are either smaller, older or on smaller lots. And those homes are priced lower.

Case in point: Apex had a 10% decrease in the median home value.

• In 2022, the median home that sold was a 2500 square foot single family home built in 2017 that sold for $577,000.
• In 2023, the median home that sold was a 2300 square foot townhome built in 2023 that sold for $519,990.

This is such a beautiful example of exactly what is happening in the real estate market.

Builders know that people are buying less expensive homes because interest rates are high. So they are building smaller homes on less land to meet the need for less expensive homes.

But that doesn’t mean that the same home that sold last year for $577,000, will now only sell for $519,990.

Here’s an example, again from Apex. This home, 108 Kylesku Court, is a 2500 square foot home built in 2001. It sold in November for $600,000. Prices aren’t going down for the same product, people are buying a lesser product because they can afford less.

Competing Offers & Expired Listings

The other clues that the market is still competitive as that we are still seeing competing offers. [Expired Graph Below]

And we are not seeing expired listings increase.

In fact, in most towns, expired listings are still decreasing. There were a couple of exceptions. When I see an exception, I look for a reasonable explanation.

Fuquay-Varina and Raleigh both had an increase in expired listings.

In Fuquay about half of these expired listings were “shadow” listings. A shadow listing is what I call it when a builder puts a home for sale in the MLS, but the home doesn’t actually exist yet. They are gauging demand with that listing and if nobody bites, they don’t build it. The other half were true expired listings. There were 12 this year compared to only 4 last year. That is a little bit of an increase, and I noticed a few investment properties on that list. I’ll keep an eye on this, but right now the numbers are so small that I don’t think it’s a concern.

In Raleigh, only 10 out of the 52 expired listings were new construction. So this was a genuine increase in expired listings.

One thing I noticed about these listings is that they were generally not very well prepared for the market. In a market where buyers area really hesitant to take on projects, homes need to be move in ready before listing.

They should also be well staged. Staging doesn’t just make the home look good, it highlights features buyers may not notice. I think with the crazy market people have been used to over the last few years, sellers still might think they can just list the home without doing anything and it will get a great price. If you’re curious what updates I usually recommend, you can find them here.

Buyers are picky now, and for good reason.

Interested in what we said about the 2023 market at the beginning of 2023? Here were our 2023 Market Predictions.

Want to know what we’ve said about the 2024 market? Read or watch it here.

View homes for sale in each Triangle Town, City, or County HERE.

Just Listed Homes in the Triangle